Qb changes was pretty straight forward. I didn't list all the rookies bc I know that the starters like Brees and Rodgers and Brady they just don't be benched, even by a rookie, unless the team tanks or they get injured. Running back is a whole new beast. Runningbacks get spelled by a backup in games. Injuries are more likely with a RB than a QB so the depth on the team is deeper. Sometimes teams just enjoy having a guy who is a different type of back. A power guy complimented with a speed back etc.
So, I am going to start at the top of last year and work my way to the bottom. My discretion. If you feel that there should be a RB on this list that I didnt address then scream at me. Also of note I am only going through the running backs that are changing teams or being added to the new teams. So Adriand Peterson is still a Viking and Arian Foster is still a Texan. I don't care about them in this post.
1. Reggie Bush went from the Dolphins to the Lions. Dolphins are left with Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas.
2. Shonn Greene went from the Jets to the Titans to form a compliment with Chris Johnson. Jets are left with uhhh hmmmm ehhh Belial Powell and Chris Ivory and Joe McKnight. Don't get excited Jest fans. You have Sanchez not throwing to Dustin Keller (he left for the Dolphins) Uhhh sorry. I am rambling. I just really think the Jets are gonna crash this year. No survivors.
3. Steven Jackson went from the Rams to the Falcons to replace Michael Turner who is now a Free Agent. Rams are left with Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead.
4. Ahmad Bradshaw is still a Free Agent is I am not mistaken. Giants are left with David Wilson and Andre Brown.
5. Danny Woodhead went from the Patriots to the Chargers to compete with the eventual void that Ryan Matthews will create when he breaks *throws dart* his spleen. Eww sounds painful. As Jason Witten.
6. Cardinals went with Rashard Mendenhall from the Steelers and Beanie Wells is a free agent, but the Steelers had shown some interest.
7. Justin Forsett went to the Jaguars from Texans. Yea, being 3rd RB behind Foster and Tate will make you want to leave but to Jacksonville? No thank you.
---------> Now the Rookies.
Bengals, Broncos, and Packers ... ehh Ill include the Steelers too picked up some notable guys who might be able to make a difference in their first year.
1. Giovani Bernard to the Bengals. To back up the Law Firm - Benjarvus Green Ellis
2. Steelers got Le'Veon Bell to add to their stable of Jonathan Dwyer, Isaac Redman, and Batch.
3. Move over Willis McGahee! Montee Ball is in Mile High now. Knowshon Moreno sucks. He should be 3rd string.
4. Packers got Eddie Lacy and Jonathan Franklin to add to Alex Green and James Starks. Boy is it gonna be a crowded committee in Green Bay.
If you feel that Christine Michael or Knile Davis belong in the convo then tell me. I'll listen.
Saturday, May 18, 2013
Team Changes QB
So, rosters and depth charts change frequently. It's a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately league. Starting with QB and working through (RB WR TE... etc) the rest of the positions we can get an idea of how the talent is shifting. Sometimes it helps a team. Sometimes a guy just wasn't producing. A younger guy comes in and the difference is hardly noted.
QB is the brain of your team.
Cardinals get rid of Kolb who goes to the Bills (Bills also drafted EJ Manuel and have Tavaris Jackson) and then the Cards grab Carson Palmer from the Raiders (Raiders also have Terrelle Pryor and drafted Tyler Wilson). Raiders get Matt Flynn from the Seahawks. Chiefs get Alex Smith from the 49ers. Jets get Geno Smith in the draft to compete with Mark Sanchez. Browns have Weeden and then gain Jason Campbell from the Bears and also pick up Hoyer from the Cardinals. Vikings gain Matt Cassel from the Chiefs to compete with Christian Ponder.
Surprisingly, this isn't too much movement at QB. There could be up to 28 teams that keep their starting QB from last year. Due to poor record and bad play on the field there might be some changed mid-season. I am just really surprised that only 12 teams make the playoffs and 2 teams make the Super Bowl and only 1 of those guys can win it all. And then 28 teams might decide to run with the same signal caller.
1. Raiders will run with a new QB. No matter what. They lost Carson Palmer. I think Matt Flynn takes the starting job he should of gotten in Seattle, but Russell Wilson won it fair and square.
2. Bills will run with either Kevin Kolb or EJ Manuel. A rookie or a guy who can't stay healthy and hack it in another QB starved city. I would be surprised if Tavaris Jackson won the starting job. He couldn't make it in Seattle or Minnesota.
3. Chiefs get rid of Cassel, who goes to Vikings as insurance, and get Alex Smith from the 49er's. I think he will do fine here and has inherited the starting role automatically.
4. Cardinals now have Carson Palmer. I don't think it helps and I don't think Drew Stanton, his backup, will be able to win the job.
After these 4 teams you have the Jets, Jaguars, and Browns. I just think that their incumbent starters are returning. Sanchez, Gabbert, and Weeden.
You will also note that these teams all suck. I guess the only team on here I would take exception to that is the Chiefs. They were the worst team in the NFL last year but I expect a huge rebound with them. They have a ton of potential. Just if I could make a bold prediction: none of these teams will be making the playoffs. None.
Raiders
Bills
Chiefs
Cardinals
Jets
Jaguars
Browns
QB is the brain of your team.
Cardinals get rid of Kolb who goes to the Bills (Bills also drafted EJ Manuel and have Tavaris Jackson) and then the Cards grab Carson Palmer from the Raiders (Raiders also have Terrelle Pryor and drafted Tyler Wilson). Raiders get Matt Flynn from the Seahawks. Chiefs get Alex Smith from the 49ers. Jets get Geno Smith in the draft to compete with Mark Sanchez. Browns have Weeden and then gain Jason Campbell from the Bears and also pick up Hoyer from the Cardinals. Vikings gain Matt Cassel from the Chiefs to compete with Christian Ponder.
Surprisingly, this isn't too much movement at QB. There could be up to 28 teams that keep their starting QB from last year. Due to poor record and bad play on the field there might be some changed mid-season. I am just really surprised that only 12 teams make the playoffs and 2 teams make the Super Bowl and only 1 of those guys can win it all. And then 28 teams might decide to run with the same signal caller.
1. Raiders will run with a new QB. No matter what. They lost Carson Palmer. I think Matt Flynn takes the starting job he should of gotten in Seattle, but Russell Wilson won it fair and square.
2. Bills will run with either Kevin Kolb or EJ Manuel. A rookie or a guy who can't stay healthy and hack it in another QB starved city. I would be surprised if Tavaris Jackson won the starting job. He couldn't make it in Seattle or Minnesota.
3. Chiefs get rid of Cassel, who goes to Vikings as insurance, and get Alex Smith from the 49er's. I think he will do fine here and has inherited the starting role automatically.
4. Cardinals now have Carson Palmer. I don't think it helps and I don't think Drew Stanton, his backup, will be able to win the job.
After these 4 teams you have the Jets, Jaguars, and Browns. I just think that their incumbent starters are returning. Sanchez, Gabbert, and Weeden.
You will also note that these teams all suck. I guess the only team on here I would take exception to that is the Chiefs. They were the worst team in the NFL last year but I expect a huge rebound with them. They have a ton of potential. Just if I could make a bold prediction: none of these teams will be making the playoffs. None.
Raiders
Bills
Chiefs
Cardinals
Jets
Jaguars
Browns
Friday, May 17, 2013
Finally! SoS vs. Power Rankings
The problem with Strength of Schedules is that in the NFL season there are a lot of other variables. You don't just end one season and pick up where you left off. So its a relatively imperfect way to gauge a future season. We have guys getting older and that can reflect on their field production. We have free agency. Sometimes guys just run out of contract or even get traded. Then we have the draft. A ton of variables.
So you get a ton of guys over at NFL.com that release their own 'official power rankings' well I am no pro but I will sure take a shot at it.
So you get a ton of guys over at NFL.com that release their own 'official power rankings' well I am no pro but I will sure take a shot at it.
1. 49ers
2. Broncos
3. Seahawks
4. Falcons
5. Packers
6. Patriots
7. Texans
8. Ravens
9. Bengals
10. Vikings
11. Colts
12. Redskins
13. Giants
14. Bears
15. Rams
16. Saints
17. Steelers
18. Cowboys
19. Dolphins
20. Buccaneers
21. Lions
22. Panthers
23. Chargers
24. Eagles
25. Browns
26. Titans
27. Cardinals
28. Bills
29. Jets
30. Chiefs
31. Raiders
32. Jaguars
Strength of Schedule part 3
This last list is the top 12 easiest anticipated schedules of 2013. Don't laugh bc were gonna start with the Cleveland Browns. Do you know what it means to take the Browns to the Super Bowl? HA!
Yes, their mascot was a Brownie. mmmmm BROWNIE points for DnD nerds if you know what that is. It wasn't bone crunching enough so they changed it.
Who finished 5-11 in the Dog House last year.
Then we have the 8-8 Steelers. I am unimpressed and I have doubts.
6-10 Gladius sword wielding Titans improved their oline a ton! Warmack and Levitre will help CJ tons. But they also got Shonn Greene so it might be a wash.
What's bigger? A titan or a giant? Giants finished 9-7 but they have also won 2 super bowls in the last 5 years. Who knows what they do. I don't see them worse than 8-8.
Their draft was horrible. They finished 8-8 when they could of made the playoffs in the final game of the year. But, they choked. If Bryant makes progress and Witten has a better year they are always dangerous. I just don't know about their defense.
Move over Bison! The Bills are here. 6-10 with a new QB. Well, not a lot of hope here. I had hope last year and then Kevin Costnar shot it. Not even on the prairie when it really happened and then they rip out its heart or liver and eat it. No afterwards at the campfire when he uses his finger to tell the story of when he DID kill it.
I'm not even using official mascots or logos anymore. Texans have a easier schedule and they will compete. Last year's 12-4 could easily be 11-5 but I doubt they slip past 10-6
The Chiefs were the worst team in the NFL. 2-14 bad. So they catch a break being closer to the easier end than the difficult end. Add in that they got a competent QB in Alex Smith and already had 6 Pro Bowlers on the roster. Got two solid bookends on the oline. If I can say anything I would guarantee that they win more than 2 games. At least 5. Probably 6-7. That would be a huge leap for this team and new head coach Reid.
Raiders suck. There I said it. They finished 4-12 and I am failing to see where they get MORE wins. They lost a lot of guys and it just keeps getting worse. Signing scrub Free Agents won't help.
The Colts have the 3rd easiest schedule and if Andrew Luck (emphasis on the horseshoes!) gets better? Whew. All comes down to their defense. It's hard to win if you are always just trying to outscore the opponent. I don't know if they can repeat 11-5 but I think playoffs are an option.
I would be completely shocked if the Chargers got better than 7-9. Maybe 8-8. Their oline needed more attention and their defense has already taken a major hit with the loss of Melvin Ingram.
I don't know if this Bronco has given up, dancing, or having a stroke. Maybe it's a stroke due to having the easiest schedule next year. 13-3 and they improved their team they should repeat a playoff appearance.
The Chiefs were the worst team in the NFL. 2-14 bad. So they catch a break being closer to the easier end than the difficult end. Add in that they got a competent QB in Alex Smith and already had 6 Pro Bowlers on the roster. Got two solid bookends on the oline. If I can say anything I would guarantee that they win more than 2 games. At least 5. Probably 6-7. That would be a huge leap for this team and new head coach Reid.
Raiders suck. There I said it. They finished 4-12 and I am failing to see where they get MORE wins. They lost a lot of guys and it just keeps getting worse. Signing scrub Free Agents won't help.
The Colts have the 3rd easiest schedule and if Andrew Luck (emphasis on the horseshoes!) gets better? Whew. All comes down to their defense. It's hard to win if you are always just trying to outscore the opponent. I don't know if they can repeat 11-5 but I think playoffs are an option.
I would be completely shocked if the Chargers got better than 7-9. Maybe 8-8. Their oline needed more attention and their defense has already taken a major hit with the loss of Melvin Ingram.
Strength of Schedule part 2
2013 Strength of Schedule vs. Power Rankings part 1
So, every year there is a pretty standard set schedule in the NFL. Due to the unique 16 team Conferences (AFC / NFC) with 4 team Divisions (North / South / East / West) and 16 game seasons we get a 4 year rotation. Every team plays a Division in the opposite Conference (AFC West plays NFC West etc) taking turns each year along with a Division in their own Conference. Then they play Interdivision rivarlies twice a piece. The last two games are teams that finished in the same place in their own respective Division in the last two remaining Divisions in the same Conference.
Did you get that? Good.
This Schedule is an attempt at making the NFL fair and balanced over a long term. However, before a single season starts it gives an edge to certain teams and piles on a more difficult schedule. Sometimes entire Divisions aren't as great as others. Sometimes life just isn't fair. I know. I'm a Lions fan.
This is Strength of Schedule. A Pre-season guesstamation at what kinda difficulty a team might be facing in the coming year based on a previous year finishing record.
The 2013 SOS: This will be from most difficult to easiest.
The Panthers have the most difficult anticipated schedule. Last year the Panthers finished 7-9.
The Detroit Lions, finished 4-12, will be another big cat trying to claw its way out of a paper bag. This is my team. I love them. I just have a hard time imagining the Lions being better than 9-7 at best. If you gave me the over under @ 9.5 I would take the under.
The Saints also finished 7-9 along with the Panthers and in fact they are in the same Division (NFC South.) I really believe that the Saints have a chance to rebound. More than the Lions or the Panthers. Last year they were rocked by the bounty scandal and their awesome head coach Peyton was suspended. I think his presence on the sideline was greatly missed. The Saints open the season against another interdivision rival in the Falcons.
The Saint Louis Rams 7-8-1 got new head coach Jeff Fisher to rebound a really poor Rams team in one year. They went toe to toe with the 49ers both times last year. They got a steep hill to climb bc now they have the Seahawks as well to contend with in the same Division NFC West.
Ahhhh NFL parity. Gotta love it. The Ravens 10-6 won the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl! They have the 5th most unappealing schedule in 2013. The formula isn't perfect but a SB winning team should face a tough year. Good. Fuck them. And Joe Flacco is overrated. He got lucky. He got hot. They are a run first team with an emphasis on defense. They lost Boldin. Good luck.
Credit to the Packer fan who drew this. I don't wanna steal anyones stuff. Nor the NFL's. Packers finished 11-5 and again got kicked to the playoff curb.
No Carson Palmer won't save you. Finished 5-11 with a ceiling of probably 7-9 this next year.
Yes, this is the new Dolphins logo. His head is turned up as if he expects to have a better than 7-9 record like last year.
49ers, the Super Bowl runner up, with a 9th difficult schedule after going 11-4-1. They open the season against the Packers. Again. This time tho it's at home for the 9ers. They beat the Pack in Lambeau last year. I would put my money on the 49ers to at least finish with 11 wins again.
Another Logo change. I can see why they reinvented this one! Vikings are a team to watch. I think they have a chance of repeating 10-6 I just do not agree that Adrian Peterson will be repeating his record breaking rushing yards season. He is healthy. The entire NFL knows it. They will need to win with Ponders arm. With guys like Rudolph and Patterson I think they can start to do that. I don't know if they needed to get rid of Percy Harvin but I guess he was a headache. *rim shot*
Did you get that? Good.
This Schedule is an attempt at making the NFL fair and balanced over a long term. However, before a single season starts it gives an edge to certain teams and piles on a more difficult schedule. Sometimes entire Divisions aren't as great as others. Sometimes life just isn't fair. I know. I'm a Lions fan.
This is Strength of Schedule. A Pre-season guesstamation at what kinda difficulty a team might be facing in the coming year based on a previous year finishing record.
The 2013 SOS: This will be from most difficult to easiest.
The Panthers have the most difficult anticipated schedule. Last year the Panthers finished 7-9.
The Detroit Lions, finished 4-12, will be another big cat trying to claw its way out of a paper bag. This is my team. I love them. I just have a hard time imagining the Lions being better than 9-7 at best. If you gave me the over under @ 9.5 I would take the under.
The Saints also finished 7-9 along with the Panthers and in fact they are in the same Division (NFC South.) I really believe that the Saints have a chance to rebound. More than the Lions or the Panthers. Last year they were rocked by the bounty scandal and their awesome head coach Peyton was suspended. I think his presence on the sideline was greatly missed. The Saints open the season against another interdivision rival in the Falcons.
The Saint Louis Rams 7-8-1 got new head coach Jeff Fisher to rebound a really poor Rams team in one year. They went toe to toe with the 49ers both times last year. They got a steep hill to climb bc now they have the Seahawks as well to contend with in the same Division NFC West.
Ahhhh NFL parity. Gotta love it. The Ravens 10-6 won the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl! They have the 5th most unappealing schedule in 2013. The formula isn't perfect but a SB winning team should face a tough year. Good. Fuck them. And Joe Flacco is overrated. He got lucky. He got hot. They are a run first team with an emphasis on defense. They lost Boldin. Good luck.
Credit to the Packer fan who drew this. I don't wanna steal anyones stuff. Nor the NFL's. Packers finished 11-5 and again got kicked to the playoff curb.
No Carson Palmer won't save you. Finished 5-11 with a ceiling of probably 7-9 this next year.
49ers, the Super Bowl runner up, with a 9th difficult schedule after going 11-4-1. They open the season against the Packers. Again. This time tho it's at home for the 9ers. They beat the Pack in Lambeau last year. I would put my money on the 49ers to at least finish with 11 wins again.
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
WHAT HAPPENED LAST YEAR?!
Last year I intended on documenting the 2012 NFL Season and my picks for said season. It did not happen the way I planned. Also, I have another few sites that use I just don't write on there. I found those sites taking more of my attention. Like: NFL.com, Livejournal.com, Yahoo.com, and ESPN.com. I found myself getting busier and busier each week. I found myself focusing more on Fantasy Football than writing on this blog. I owe the apology most to myself since I don't wanna just quit, but if you WERE reading or following for that I am sorry.
So, where to start? The first free agency is already over. The draft is done with. Even the free agency after the draft is mostly taken care of. A few big names are out there still. Since the new CBA streamlined the signing and salary structure of rookies most teams (like the Lions they signed all their rookies already) have already got all their guys under contract. Some guys don't wanna sign bc they don't wanna report for voluntary activities. Yes, even athletes can be lazy and pigheaded.
Teams are starting to report to OTAs and the rookie camps are finishing up. Training camps will be right around the corner here in June/July I think. I'm not gonna go look but I know that Pre-Season starts in August so they all gotta be wrapped up by then. Season officially begins in September. September 5th. Broncos host the Super Bowl winning Ravens. A wonderful rematch. Should be an awesome game even if it is in Denver instead of in Baltimore where it should be.
There is still a ton of time left before the season start, but I would like to look at it closer. Right now all the teams are set at 90 players. The new CBA changed this as well. More players more competition it's great. They will slowly cut this number down to 53 at the beginning of the season towards September.
So week 1 looks like this:
Who to pick? This looks like a great Week 1. A Thursday night revenge game. A rivalry Sunday night game. Two Monday games. Packers and 49ers in the Sunday afternoon. I will be updating more especially leading into the season. I wanna focus on 1. single player goals and achievements and 2. injuries / cuts / and overall team changes. / 3. team potentials related to power rankings and expectations.
Stay tuned and I'm gonna try to make this better.
So, where to start? The first free agency is already over. The draft is done with. Even the free agency after the draft is mostly taken care of. A few big names are out there still. Since the new CBA streamlined the signing and salary structure of rookies most teams (like the Lions they signed all their rookies already) have already got all their guys under contract. Some guys don't wanna sign bc they don't wanna report for voluntary activities. Yes, even athletes can be lazy and pigheaded.
Teams are starting to report to OTAs and the rookie camps are finishing up. Training camps will be right around the corner here in June/July I think. I'm not gonna go look but I know that Pre-Season starts in August so they all gotta be wrapped up by then. Season officially begins in September. September 5th. Broncos host the Super Bowl winning Ravens. A wonderful rematch. Should be an awesome game even if it is in Denver instead of in Baltimore where it should be.
There is still a ton of time left before the season start, but I would like to look at it closer. Right now all the teams are set at 90 players. The new CBA changed this as well. More players more competition it's great. They will slowly cut this number down to 53 at the beginning of the season towards September.
So week 1 looks like this:
Week 1:
Thursday,
September 5th
Ravens
@ Broncos
-
Sunday,
September 8th
Patriots @ Bills
Titans
@ Steelers
Falcons @ Saints
Buccaneers @ Jets
Chiefs @ Jaguars
Seahawks @ Panthers
Bengals
@ Bears
Dolphins
@ Browns
Vikings
@ Lions
Raiders
@ Colts
-
Packers
@ 49ers
Cardinals
@ Rams
-
Giants @ Cowboys
-
Monday,
September 9th
Eagles
@ Redskins
Texans @ Chargers
-
Who to pick? This looks like a great Week 1. A Thursday night revenge game. A rivalry Sunday night game. Two Monday games. Packers and 49ers in the Sunday afternoon. I will be updating more especially leading into the season. I wanna focus on 1. single player goals and achievements and 2. injuries / cuts / and overall team changes. / 3. team potentials related to power rankings and expectations.
Stay tuned and I'm gonna try to make this better.
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