Monday, June 24, 2013

Am I learning anything from these mock drafts?

More importantly.. are you?

We all have different strategies. We all have teams and players we like. Some people mistakenly draft players from teams they are a fan of. Maybe they came from your college team or you could just have a hunch. (These are both no-no's)

Do you play in a 8 team league or 10 to 12? Do you play PPR or Standard? That would be Points Per Reception. Now, I don't play PPR. I like the Standard League format. I'm old school. I like the QB to earn 6 points for a touchdown not 4. However, I do like a flex option of RB/WR to be available so you can either play a 4th WR or a 3rd RB. These mock drafts don't take that into a account. They are 10 man leagues with only 15 players drafted. The talent will pool up towards the end more often than a 12 man league. Obviously.   

Maybe, I'm really not trying to convince you of anything. Maybe it's me. I need to reinforce my own approach to the draft. Bc we ALL have knee jerk reactions. We have bias. And sometimes we fall back on these crutches when we are confronted with a situation we are uninformed or confused about. So, STUDY hard guys. If you really care about your final draft before the season starts you need to KNOW about these players. Especially if you have a money pool. You want to win. You can't just be a fan of one team. You need to know when to draft Adrian Peterson early even if you are a die hard Packers fan. (Or even Lions fan like me.)

LEARN THE RULES! And if it all possible know who you are drafting with. It can be a game changer. This is important. How many points are these guys earning? For example I know that on nfl.com defense and special teams are not rewarded as much as yahoo leagues. This changes their value and their draft position. Speaking of learn from a few different angles. Because! I think everyone shouldn't know the draft order until right before the draft begins. I think 5-10 minutes before the draft begins is a way to even the playing field. Draw out of a hat or do something.

So, another mock draft? You know it's coming! This time I went with 12 man league.

6. Jamaal Charles RB
19. Matt Forte RB
30. Chris Johnson RB
43. Hakeem Nicks WR
54. Matt Stafford QB
67. Steve Smith WR
78. Seattle D/ST
91. Stevie Johnson WR
102. Lance Moore WR
115. Jermichael Finley TE
126. Denarius Moore WR
139. Jared Cook TE
150. David Akers K
163. Jacquizz Rodgers RB
174. Michael Bush RB





So, I did another mock draft..

Who would of guessed?

I have decided on something new. I am going to go out of my way to try to do ALL the things I said I don't want to do. Then I'm going to try to make them work. The real draft never goes as planned. Some jerk ahead of you will snag the guy you covet. Maybe you are even 10 draft spots away and QB or Defense start to go and you are stuck taking the Lions. Stuff like that really happens. All the time. So, what I am going to do..

1. Do not take two RB early.
2. Take a QB and TE early.
3. Take one of those elite WR.
4. Draft between 4-8 as much as I can.
5. Target players that I have issues with.
6. For example target some rookies or guys recovering from injury.

Of course I will share with you! I wouldn't be writing this if I didn't want to share.

6. Marshawn Lynch RB - A no brainer imo. It was Lynch or Ray Rice.
15. Julio Jones WR - It was either Julio Jones or Brandon Marshall. I like the dome team.
26. Jimmy Graham TE - He was just sitting there. I didn't really plan on it. At 26 it was destiny!!!!
35. Andre Johnson WR - It was a toss up between Cruz and Vincent Jackson. I took a gamble imo.
46. Matthew Stafford QB - Early for a QB but I wanted to see who fell. I want to see the value.
55. Dwayne Bowe WR - I still haven't gotten a second RB I could of had David Wilson.
66. Le'Veon Bell RB - Him or Montee Ball.
75. 49ers D/ST - Seattle just went right ahead of me.
86. Rashard Mendenhall RB - I could of taken the law firm.
95. Jeremy Maclin WR - Desean Jackson will see a limited role? Is that a smoke screen? I don't know..
106. Shane Vareen RB - Value
115. Vick Ballard RB - Value
126. Phil Dawson K - I wouldn't do this. That is exactly why I did it here. Who falls for value?
135. Isaiah Pead RB - Gamble.
146. Mohamed Sanu WR - So many WR are left on the board. I haven't taken this guy yet.

This is a ten team league. There are a ton of RB and WR options on the waiver wire. If one of my RBs falter I will drop and replace. Also, my bye weeks are in perfect unison. One RB and One WR early with week 5 and week 6 and my bench guys can come in and only hurt my team with one replacement. The team should be playing with each other for the first 4 weeks solid.





Sunday, June 23, 2013

Mock draft #123456

This time I have decided to go with the #4 spot.

This was a surprisingly good draft. I just felt that I let QB slip a little too much. And I didn't get a backup QB for my lack of selection. I would have to hope that Andrew Luck is the REAL deal.

#4 Jamaal Charles RB
#17 Julio Jones WR
#24 Chris Johnson RB
#37 Dwayne Bowe WR (I double dipped. Whoops. The value was there.)
#44 Marques Colston WR
#57 Le'Veon Bell RB
#64 Montee Ball RB
#77 Andrew Luck QB (ALL the other good QBs were gone. Even Romo. This was one of those times QB went early.)
#84 Denver D/ST (Seahawks 49ers and Bears were all gone.)
#97 Antonio Gates TE
#104 Denarius Moore WR
#117 Brandon Myers TE
#124 Kendall Wright WR
#137 Michael Floyd WR
#144 DAvid Akers K



2013 NFL Fantasy Football Mock Drafts part 2

I have completed about one hundred mock drafts. Roughly. Some of them we were very talkative and the draft went quickly. Other times people would just troll us and take Tebow with the first pick. *If that is you go die in a fire!* Then again sometimes people took forever with the first pick to then take Adrian Peterson or Arian Foster. *Shit or get off the pot!* So, I have learned a few new things I want to share with you.

1. I am still not taking a QB early. I would say that from experience now the 5th to 6th round is when I would start targeting a QB. I have gotten Stafford and Luck in the 8th round and I have seen Romo and Rivers fall all the way to the 10th and 11th round. If you insist on a Rodgers or Brady you could target them in the 3rd. I have seen Matt Ryan going all the way from the 4th to the 8th and so REALLY what I'm saying is know who you are drafting with. Know your league. If you play a 3rd RB flex option I would take a 3rd RB before I take a QB. I would take a top WR before I take a QB. But, this reminds me..

2. WR is VERY deep. BUT! Know this: I wouldn't want to miss out on a top flight WR (Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, AJ Green, Brandon Marshall.) One of those top 5 WR In a ten team league there will be half of you that will not get one of those guys. If you don't get one of them I would make sure that you have BOTH of your RBs before you touch WR. I think Demaryius Thomas and Victor Cruz are not top flight WRs but that doesn't mean they are worth taking. Vincent Jackson and Larry Fitzgerald as well. I just want my two rooks, if you will, before I invest in getting my bishops.

3. Don't be afraid of being a trend setter. I like the ten man league. I do not like the twelve man league anymore. I admit the eight man league is fun for at least one of my leagues each year. It comes down to planning ahead bc every team is going to be elite. But to my point. Don't be afraid of setting a trend. IF you have your starting RBs and a top WR and you wanna get the QB that YOU want. Don't be afraid of getting him. Just know the board. If its the 8th round and nobody has taken a defense and its your turn and you already have two RBs and two WR and your QB dont be afraid to snag Seattle or 49ers or Bears defense. Bc once these guys start going if your pick is 10 away and a trend starts. Boom. You miss out.

4. I'm still waiting for TE. Only Jimmy Graham is worth that top spot and I will argue with you about where he should be drafted, but he is the only TE worth the #1 spot. So, once someone snags this guy it's just gonna be a wait and see. I wouldn't take a TE over a #2 RB or my #2 WR or my QB or DEFENSE! Yes, Defense/ST is worth more to me in the new year than a TE. So by the time the 8th round rolls around its a crap shoot. I can wait longer for my TE. I'll get my #3 WR and my #3 RB before I take TE. I have a few sleepers.

... You wanna know my sleepers don't you? At the end of the draft I am seeing a lot of guys fall. Guys in either contract years (Pettigrew) or guys who have changed teams (Myers or Cook.) These guys you can get in the last 3 rounds of the draft. Even Olsen and Rudolph are falling for value.

5. I think there are only 5 D/ST worth investing in the draft. Seattle - 49ers - Chicago (which is a big ? to be honest) - Houston - and Denver. If I don't get one of these teams I am gonna try to pick one up late. I see Steelers and Ravens and Bengals falling all the way to the last few rounds.

6. I'm changing my mind. As long as I don't have a top 2 pick I will be happy. But mostly I am falling out of love with the last two picks. the 3rd to 8th pick is magic.

Let me give you another mock draft I just completed.

10. Alfred Morris RB
11. Trent Richardson RB
30. Chris Johnson RB
31. Vincent Jackson WR
50. Matt Stafford QB - All the other QBs I wanted were gone. There was a run on them and I jumped, too.
51. Torrey Smith WR
70. Cecil Shorts WR
71. 49ers D/ST - Seattle and Chicago were both gone. I wanted one of the top 3.
90. Miles Austin WR
91. Ty Hilton WR
110. Denarius Moore WR
111. Mikel Leshoure RB
130. Isaiah Pead RB
131. Jermichael Finley TE
150. Sebastian Janikowski K




Sunday, June 9, 2013

NFL FANTASY FOOTBALL MOCK DRAFTS!!!

Yahoo and NFL.com are Rrrrreeeeeaaaaddddyyyyy to Rrrroooooolllllll!!!!! HELL, YES!

I know I am a few days behind on this major Earth shattering event, but I am experimenting with different drafting strategies.

I try to stay as far away from any set strategy in a given year. I like the year to define itself and prepare for the draft with an open mind. Some people base their draft on value or stud rbs or even trying to fill their starters first. A lot of different angles to take. Buutttt with that being said there are always some things you notice and while I won't be the first or last person to make these observations I wanna share with you.

1. I don't want the first pick. I don't want a top 3 pick. You can HAVE Arian Foster or Adrian Peterson and see if they get better. Plus, then you get to wait forever to get back to your next pick. I think they both are peaking and will probably have less points than last year. I wouldn't hate the 3rd to 5th (I'll take Marshawn Lynch or Muscle Hamster and Jamaal Charles or Ray Rice with position over just a RB with no position) but I want a late pick. The later the pick the better it is. I think the 10th pick in a 10 team league is the best pick out there. You get to pick up back to back guys you can go RB/RB or RB/WR.

2. I am going to wait on QB. I will adjust if people go crazy on the position early but all the analysts are saying it and I see it time and time again in all the mock drafts I do. I want my first 4 picks gone before I touch a Signal Caller. If that means I get Matt Ryan again or Matt Stafford so be it. The drop off from those guys to Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers is going to be maybe 1-2 points a game.

3. With there being 3x WR over 2x RB I find that once I have my first two RBs value immediately swings to WR. I want 4x solid WR's. With the NFL turning to a pass first league WR's are worth more and more. I'm not sure I would draft WR/WR with the 10th pick but if Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones or AJ Green or Dez Bryant are BOTH there at 10 sure. I wouldn't hesistate.

4. I disagree with the pundits on Chris Johnson's demise. I think I would take him as my #2 RB again this year. He just inherited a pro bowl guard and arguably the best guard in the draft. His line will be improved. Howver, I am going to avoid Ryan Matthews and Darren McFadden like the plague. I agree with that.

5. I am actually going to avoid rookies in the first half to ten rounds of the draft. In complete opposite advice to the analysts and pundits. No room. Name me a rookie QB I can trust? most of ALL of the Qb's from last year are incumbent starters for the teams. Only like 2-3 rookie RB's can be trusted and I got better options. WR's as rookies are hit or miss. I got better options. I will look them up when I need a 4th option for my bench.

6. I am going to avoid TE. I will get one late. If people start a trend I'll hop on but you won't get me taking one of those elite guys. I think there are a lot of sleepers late in the draft. I want 4x solid WR's and 3x solid RB's and then my QB before I even SNIFF a TE. Or maybe not. I'll go with the flow.

7. Let me give you an example of a draft. OR a few. depends on how many I can get in before my brain explodes from so much awesomeness.

I am gonna go with the riskier drafts I have completed as of now. non PPR. Standard scoring.

Leading up to my first pick there was an obvious run on RB so I took two.

#10 - LeSean McCoy - RB - Eagles - Bye week 12
#11 - Alfred Morris - RB - Redskins - Bye week 5

And then just like my first pick there was a huge run on WR so I took two.

#30 - Vincent Jackson - WR - Buccaneers - Bye week 5
#31 - Dwayne Bowe - WR - Chiefs - Bye week 10

I already have a Bye Week overlap and that bothers me. Argh!

#50 - Torrey Smith - WR - Ravens - Bye week 8
#51 - Mike Wallace - WR - Dolphins - Bye week 6

I really wanted another RB but there was another run on them along with QB so I took value. two #1 WRs so I have my 4 WR's until the end of the draft. I am gonna start to look for and anticipate either a QB now or RB value.

#70 - Lamar Miller - RB - Dolphins - Bye week 6
#71 - Chris Ivory - RB - Jets - Bye week 10

A huge run on QB went down between 52 and 69. I am now looking for RBs to get my stable full. Both these guys are expected to be starters.

Defenses are going and Tight Ends are going. Everything is going. It's in full value mode. Andrew Luck and Tony Romo are staring me in the face for these next picks.

#90 - Tony Romo - QB - Cowboys - Bye week 11
#91 - Cecil Shorts - WR - Jaguars - Bye week 9

With Blackmon suspended I wanted Cecil Shorts for value here. I don't need a WR anymore. I got 5. However, I needed a QB and someone took Andrew Luck. I get Tony Romo in the 9th round. I don't ike the guy. But he throws to Austin and Bryant and Witten. I had to pull the trigger.

I don't want to paint myself into a corner but guys have been plucking Defenses now so I need to get one. Tight End is empty at this point. I got to fill my starters who will see the field every week.

#110 - Antonio Gates - TE - Chargers - Bye week 8
#111 - Ravens - D/ST - Ravens - Bye week 8

Gates isn't elite anymore but I snagged him in the 11th round. I can live with that. Ravens aren't elite either but same same. I can live with that. All the other elites are gone. I'm just picking through rubbish now.

I want to get some insurance for TE and Defense. If a QB is there I will look at that. I got two bench spots and an open kicker spot.

#130 - David Akers - K - Lions - Bye week 9
#131 - Cardinals - D/ST - Cardinals - Bye week 9

Lions usually either score a lot or kick a lot of Field Goals. Win win. I'm willing to reach for a starting Kicker I can trust will get a lot of opportunities. As for the Cardinals. Their special teams is great and can score points. I am willing to drop this for a waiver wire pickup when someone turns up big OR an injury.

#150 - Andy Dalton - QB - Bengals - Bye week 12

Insurance for my Romo.