Yahoo and NFL.com are Rrrrreeeeeaaaaddddyyyyy to Rrrroooooolllllll!!!!! HELL, YES!
I know I am a few days behind on this major Earth shattering event, but I am experimenting with different drafting strategies.
I try to stay as far away from any set strategy in a given year. I like the year to define itself and prepare for the draft with an open mind.
Some people base their draft on value or stud rbs or even trying to fill their starters first. A lot of different angles to take.
Buutttt with that being said there are always some things you notice and while I won't be the first or last person to make these observations I wanna share with you.
1. I don't want the first pick. I don't want a top 3 pick. You can HAVE Arian Foster or Adrian Peterson and see if they get better. Plus, then you get to wait forever to get back to your next pick. I think they both are peaking and will probably have less points than last year. I wouldn't hate the 3rd to 5th (I'll take Marshawn Lynch or Muscle Hamster and Jamaal Charles or Ray Rice with position over just a RB with no position) but I want a late pick. The later the pick the better it is. I think the 10th pick in a 10 team league is the best pick out there. You get to pick up back to back guys you can go RB/RB or RB/WR.
2. I am going to wait on QB. I will adjust if people go crazy on the position early but all the analysts are saying it and I see it time and time again in all the mock drafts I do. I want my first 4 picks gone before I touch a Signal Caller. If that means I get Matt Ryan again or Matt Stafford so be it. The drop off from those guys to Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers is going to be maybe 1-2 points a game.
3. With there being 3x WR over 2x RB I find that once I have my first two RBs value immediately swings to WR. I want 4x solid WR's. With the NFL turning to a pass first league WR's are worth more and more. I'm not sure I would draft WR/WR with the 10th pick but if Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones or AJ Green or Dez Bryant are BOTH there at 10 sure. I wouldn't hesistate.
4. I disagree with the pundits on Chris Johnson's demise. I think I would take him as my #2 RB again this year. He just inherited a pro bowl guard and arguably the best guard in the draft. His line will be improved. Howver, I am going to avoid Ryan Matthews and Darren McFadden like the plague. I agree with that.
5. I am actually going to avoid rookies in the first half to ten rounds of the draft. In complete opposite advice to the analysts and pundits. No room. Name me a rookie QB I can trust? most of ALL of the Qb's from last year are incumbent starters for the teams. Only like 2-3 rookie RB's can be trusted and I got better options. WR's as rookies are hit or miss. I got better options. I will look them up when I need a 4th option for my bench.
6. I am going to avoid TE. I will get one late. If people start a trend I'll hop on but you won't get me taking one of those elite guys. I think there are a lot of sleepers late in the draft. I want 4x solid WR's and 3x solid RB's and then my QB before I even SNIFF a TE. Or maybe not. I'll go with the flow.
7. Let me give you an example of a draft. OR a few. depends on how many I can get in before my brain explodes from so much awesomeness.
I am gonna go with the riskier drafts I have completed as of now. non PPR. Standard scoring.
Leading up to my first pick there was an obvious run on RB so I took two.
#10 - LeSean McCoy - RB - Eagles - Bye week 12
#11 - Alfred Morris - RB - Redskins - Bye week 5
And then just like my first pick there was a huge run on WR so I took two.
#30 - Vincent Jackson - WR - Buccaneers - Bye week 5
#31 - Dwayne Bowe - WR - Chiefs - Bye week 10
I already have a Bye Week overlap and that bothers me. Argh!
#50 - Torrey Smith - WR - Ravens - Bye week 8
#51 - Mike Wallace - WR - Dolphins - Bye week 6
I really wanted another RB but there was another run on them along with QB so I took value. two #1 WRs so I have my 4 WR's until the end of the draft. I am gonna start to look for and anticipate either a QB now or RB value.
#70 - Lamar Miller - RB - Dolphins - Bye week 6
#71 - Chris Ivory - RB - Jets - Bye week 10
A huge run on QB went down between 52 and 69. I am now looking for RBs to get my stable full. Both these guys are expected to be starters.
Defenses are going and Tight Ends are going. Everything is going. It's in full value mode. Andrew Luck and Tony Romo are staring me in the face for these next picks.
#90 - Tony Romo - QB - Cowboys - Bye week 11
#91 - Cecil Shorts - WR - Jaguars - Bye week 9
With Blackmon suspended I wanted Cecil Shorts for value here. I don't need a WR anymore. I got 5. However, I needed a QB and someone took Andrew Luck. I get Tony Romo in the 9th round. I don't ike the guy. But he throws to Austin and Bryant and Witten. I had to pull the trigger.
I don't want to paint myself into a corner but guys have been plucking Defenses now so I need to get one. Tight End is empty at this point. I got to fill my starters who will see the field every week.
#110 - Antonio Gates - TE - Chargers - Bye week 8
#111 - Ravens - D/ST - Ravens - Bye week 8
Gates isn't elite anymore but I snagged him in the 11th round. I can live with that. Ravens aren't elite either but same same. I can live with that. All the other elites are gone. I'm just picking through rubbish now.
I want to get some insurance for TE and Defense. If a QB is there I will look at that. I got two bench spots and an open kicker spot.
#130 - David Akers - K - Lions - Bye week 9
#131 - Cardinals - D/ST - Cardinals - Bye week 9
Lions usually either score a lot or kick a lot of Field Goals. Win win. I'm willing to reach for a starting Kicker I can trust will get a lot of opportunities. As for the Cardinals. Their special teams is great and can score points. I am willing to drop this for a waiver wire pickup when someone turns up big OR an injury.
#150 - Andy Dalton - QB - Bengals - Bye week 12
Insurance for my Romo.
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